PCUSA 2008 Statistics

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sastark

sastark

Puritan Board Graduate
One of the blogs I follow is GA Junkie and his latest post is about the newest Presbyterian Panel Survey (a survey of the PCUSA). I've only looked at the summary (available here: http://www.pcusa.org/research/panel/snapshot2008.pdf), but there are a few interesting things that jumped out at me. For example:

  • The median age of members in the PCUSA is 60. I'm not sure how that compares to denominations like the PCA, but it seems like a very old median age, to me!
  • Only 27% of pastors in the PCUSA are female. I would have thought that to be a higher number. But note that 52% of Elders (I assume that means Ruling Elders) are female.
  • 46% of PCUSA Members are Republican and 31% Democrat; whereas, 50% of PCUSA Pastors are Democrats and only 23% are Republicans.
  • Only 38% of Elders report that they attend worship every week. An additional 48% say "Nearly Every Week".
  • Only 17% of Elders say they read their Bible daily or almost daily.
  • 82% of Pastors strongly agree or agree with the statement "Jesus will return to the earth one day." That means 18% DON'T agree or aren't sure!
  • Only 35% of Pastors agree or strongly agree with the statement "Only followers of Jesus can be saved."

Pretty amazing stuff, if you ask me!
 
Modern Reformation magazine had a article on PC(USA) Membership losses about a year ago. The article reported the PC(USA) is losing around 50,000 members per year from individuals leaving to attend other evangelical churches to entire congregations leaving the denomination with the most of those going to the EPC. The reason most go to the EPC is that they have female pastors and elders which the OPC/PCA/ARP, etc., will not permit, even on a grandfather scheme.

The conclusion is that, given current trends, the PC(USA) will be extuinct in 10-15 years.
 
Since typically more conservative and moderate members are leaving for the EPC, I surmise the EPC might befcome the largest Presbyterian denomination in the US, wheras the PCUS will become an extremelyl iberal micro-denomination since the moderates and conservatives won't be there to dillute the hardcore liberal theologies.
 
MMasztal said:
Modern Reformation magazine had a article on PC(USA) Membership losses about a year ago. The article reported the PC(USA) is losing around 50,000 members per year from individuals leaving to attend other evangelical churches to entire congregations leaving the denomination with the most of those going to the EPC. The reason most go to the EPC is that they have female pastors and elders which the OPC/PCA/ARP, etc., will not permit, even on a grandfather scheme.

The conclusion is that, given current trends, the PC(USA) will be extuinct in 10-15 years.
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I would be curious to see statistics about the individuals (not the churches) who leave the PCUSA and seek membership in other churches. My guess would be that most do not seek out Reformed (read: NAPARC) denominations and are instead going the "broadly evangelical" route, but I could be wrong.
 
Rev. Phillips et al,

In my experience those that leave the PC(USA) go one of three routes. Ranked according to number and/or percentage

1) Death

2) Non-Attendance anywhere

3) Local Non-Denom or AofG-esque church

Very few and I mean very few of the people I know personally in the PC(USA) (I am still very much involved in the denominational life as a necessity) who have left for purposeful THEOLOGICAL reasons went Reformed in the strict sense. I do know many that have gone the conservative Anglican route. Most notably a mutual acquaintance of ours.
 
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As an addendum the number of church bodies leaving the denomination has slowed to a near standstill recently. Even at its height a couple of years ago no more than 4 or 5 per year were leaving in a denomination of 1,500+ churches.
 
Marrow Man said:
I would be curious to see statistics about the individuals (not the churches) who leave the PCUSA and seek membership in other churches. My guess would be that most do not seek out Reformed (read: NAPARC) denominations and are instead going the "broadly evangelical" route, but I could be wrong.
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That would be interesting to see, but given the theological shallowness of the PC(USA) in general, most of those who leave might gravitate to a Calvary Chapel type assembly rather than another mainline denomination like Episcopal, Methodist, Lutheran.,
 
It has been a few years, but I recall a time when I asked people who described themselves as "presbyterians," "Oh, what denomination?" OP, PCA and ARP Presbyterians had an answer. PCUSA Presbyterians usually said they didn't know (or they didn't know there was more than one kind).
 
The young people I know who've been raised PC(USA) are just quitting church period. They find it meaningless. It's hard for me to convince them to try my Presbyterian denomination ("Really, it's not the same thing") because they figure they've been there, done that. If they try anything, they'll go for something obviously very different.

For this reason, our traditional buildings and names like Presbyterian (as much as we love them, and I do) get in the way. My former church, because we didn't have a fancy building and had to settle for a converted school building, ended up attracting disaffected mainliners even though we kept the name "Presbyterian." I'd say the practical question for us is: How do we remain Presbyterian yet clearly show people who won't step foot in the door that we aren't *them*?
 
Backwoods Presbyterian said:
Rev. Phillips et al,

In my experience those that leave the PC(USA) go one of three routes. Ranked according to number and/or percentage

1) Death

2) Non-Attendance anywhere

3) Local Non-Denom or AofG-esque church

Very few and I mean very few of the people I know personally in the PC(USA) (I am still very much involved in the denominational life as a necessity) who have left for purposeful THEOLOGICAL reasons went Reformed in the strict sense. I do know many that have gone the conservative Anglican route. Most notably a mutual acquaintance of ours.
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:wow:

Excellent and insightful. I suspect that many might also go an Anglican/Episcopal route (of the conservative variety), because of particular worship styles. At least that seems to be the case around here, in my limited experience.
 
Marrow Man said:
:wow:

Excellent and insightful. I suspect that many might also go an Anglican/Episcopal route (of the conservative variety), because of particular worship styles. At least that seems to be the case around here, in my limited experience.
Click to expand...

A lot of Presbyterian church of the USA variety are quite "high church" in the liturgical sense. Of the over 300 PC(USA) churches I am familiar with only two do not use the Revised Common Lectionary and zero do not follow the liturgical calendar.
 
My two cents is that the majority of people who left the PCUSA for theological reasons did that years ago. Most that do now, go for some other reason.
 
I had an old PC(USA) minister say one time to me that the first-string conservative theologians left in 1936, the second-string in 1973, and what we are left with are the towel boys and Junior Varsity.

(no offense intended to the PC(USA)'ers here...)
 
Backwoods Presbyterian said:
As an addendum the number of church bodies leaving the denomination has slowed to a near standstill recently. Even at its height a couple of years ago no more than 4 or 5 per year were leaving in a denomination of 1,500+ churches.
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Really? I would have guessed higher. We have 40 congregations in our new wineskin presbytery right now.
 
Statistics reported on the Layman.org web site show that the PC(USA) at its peak had about 4.5 milliion members, but has been losing at a rate of about 40,000 per year, with that number increasing in recent years. They now claim about 2.1 million members. It is impossible to say what the real numbers are. And I think Ben had a typo up there--don't they still have about 11,500 churches?

Rather than the PC(USA) becoming extinct, I would expect a merger with the UCC when they get small enough. At a continued loss of 50,000/year, it would take another 20 years to get down to 1 million members, or half their current size. But at some point, what remains are people who don't care or are hard-core modernists. At some point they hit a level where they really won't shrink any further other than by deaths.

My major concern is what would happen to the collections at the Presbyterian Historical Society in Philadelphia. The best solution I can imagine would be to cede everything over to Princeton where it could be properly cared.

One bright note--the evangelicals that have stayed and tried to fight have had to rethink their faith and dig in for the battle. The renewal organizations have to have something to point their followers to, and more often than not they recommend books by R.C. Sproul and similar authors.
 
DMcFadden said:
All of the mainlines are on trajectories to become micro-denominations serving liberals.
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I wonder how much of this is due to the fact that liberals stopped, for the most part, having babies while among conservatives the trend is the other way. :think:
 
Ben:

One knowledgeable pastor I know once said that the PCA has about as many people in the pews on any given Sunday as does the PC(USA).

Would you agree with that assessment?
 
Wayne said:
Ben:

One knowledgeable pastor I know once said that the PCA has about as many people in the pews on any given Sunday as does the PC(USA).

Would you agree with that assessment?
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All I can say on that front is that the four churches that I worked with closely over the last 4 years before I left the PC(USA) in all of them they had approx. 25-40% of active membership each Lord's Day and about 20% of that 25-40% would change weekly.

For example one suburban Pittsburgh church had an on the books active membership of around 500. We would average 100 or so each Lord's Day. 80 of those 100 would be there 48 out of 52 Lord's Days. Another Pittsburgh church I worked at had an on the books membership of 700 and we would average 250-275 per Lord's Day.

I know some PC(USA) churches however where this is not the case and they have a much closer Active Membership/Weekly Attendance rate. Though for the most part I would put the number at or around 50% of total active membership each Lord's Day.

Hope that makes sense.
 
The reason most go to the EPC is that they have female pastors and elders which the OPC/PCA/ARP, etc., will not permit, even on a grandfather scheme.
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Wouldn't that be a 'grandmother scheme'?
 
Then by that assessment, my pastor friend wasn't far off.

Your numbers would put an accurate census at closer to 1 million+, of which 25-40% might be in church on any given Sunday.

Does that sound about right?
 
MMasztal said:
The reason most go to the EPC is that they have female pastors and elders which the OPC/PCA/ARP, etc., will not permit, even on a grandfather scheme.
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I think that is a false statement. I can't speak on the elder part, but of all the PCUSA churches that are coming to the EPC only one has a female pastor. Granted that is one too many, but clearly female pastorship is not the reason.
 
Boliver:

Perhaps not the readiness to receive churches with female pastors, but rather, female ruling elders.

Also, you know, but others might not, that none of these departing PC(USA) churches have technically been received into the EPC yet, but are instead in a trans-geographic holding presbytery created to receive them for a five year period, during which time both sides evaluate the situation.
 
Wayne said:
Then by that assessment, my pastor friend wasn't far off.

Your numbers would put an accurate census at closer to 1 million+, of which 25-40% might be in church on any given Sunday.

Does that sound about right?
Click to expand...

At least in my experience yes.

Any other PC(USA)'ers or former USA'ers want to chime in for corroboration?
 
Ben:

You go get your statistics and I'll go get mine:

How many foreign missionaries are fielded by the PC(USA) and the PCA, and at what cost per capita?

Actually, I think I'll turn this question into a new thread and try to solicit stats from the other Presbyterian denominations. Ben, if you have the ARP stats handy, feel free to add those to the new thread.
 
Wayne said:
Boliver:

Perhaps not the readiness to receive churches with female pastors, but rather, female ruling elders.

Also, you know, but others might not, that none of these departing PC(USA) churches have technically been received into the EPC yet, but are instead in a trans-geographic holding presbytery created to receive them for a five year period, during which time both sides evaluate the situation.
Click to expand...

I agree that female eldership may have some part in the equation, but female pastorship didn't. That is true that the new wineskin presbytery is a transitional five year evaluation period for those thinking of joining our ranks.
 
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